CASADE

Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria’s Largest Northern City

John Campbell*.

A recent, so far unexplained, spike in deaths in Kano, Nigeria, highlights the difficulty of tracking the spread of coronavirus, especially in certain large African urban areas. Kano is regarded as Nigeria's second largest urban agglomeration, after Lagos. It is the capital of Kano state, the first or second largest in population. The population estimate of 4 million for the city is almost certainly much too low. The city sprawls over some fifty square miles and is highly decentralized in governance, with forty-four local government areas. Large number of people have fled to the city to escape the breakdown of security in the north as well as drought and other perennial hazards. Overcrowding is ubiquitous, and most people are very poor. The population is predominately Muslim, though with a small Christian minority, and hosts the emir of Kano, one of the most senior traditional rulers in the north.
Even in normal times, a large number of Kano residents die outside of hospitals. The dead are not deposited in morgues, and the cause of death is nowhere recorded. When they can, residents return to their home villages to die or they die in the urban households where they have been living. Following Muslim practice, the dead are buried immediately. Hence statistics are of little use in charting rates or causation of death. It was gravediggers that called attention to the recent spike in deaths.

City residents are fearful that the spike in deaths is directly related to COVID-19. Apparently, so is President Muhammadu Buhari, who has extended for another two weeks in Kano city a lockdown even as he is loosening those restrictions elsewhere. As of April 28, according to the Nigerian Center for Disease Control, Kano state had 115 reported COVID-19 cases. State investigators are looking into the spike, but the definitive answers that might be provided by tests may be hard to come by. Investigators are conducting “verbal autopsies,” interviewing relatives of the deceased about the nature of the deaths, partly because testing capacity is low. Nigeria had conducted just under 13,000 tests as of April 28. One of the Kano testing facilities was contaminated and thus closed for cleaning, further delaying results. Doctors who observe patients with COVID-19 symptoms often have no tests on hand to verify if the patients have the disease.

Some local officials and observers see the death spike as the result of multiple causes. For example, most private hospitals in Kano have been closed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Public hospitals remain open, but they are geared now to responding to COVID-19. Under normal circumstances, for those that can afford it, private hospitals provide care for many of those with preexisting conditions. Others receive no medical treatment at all. Even for those that are relatively well-off, with the hospital closures, those afflicted with diabetes, cancer, or heart disease, for example, go untreated. Those with preexisting conditions and the poor are especially vulnerable.
In the best of times, Kano's disease burden is heavy, and life spans are short. The city hosts myriad lethal diseases, including malaria, meningitis, and Lassa fever. Clean water is difficult for the poor to access, and a high percentage of the population is malnourished. Hence, whatever role COVID-19 has played in Kano's apparent death spike is difficult to determine. The same will likely be the case in cities such as Lagos or Kinshasa, but not necessarily elsewhere. For example, morgues are in greater use in Abidjan and Johannesburg, facilitating the capture of cause of death data. In Kano, the extent of the disease is simply unknown at this time.

* John Campbell is Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies.
Council on Foreign Relations.
First published by CFR

by CASADE

Conference on the state of higher education convened in Abuja by Dakota Wesleyan University and The Centre for Leadership Studies of Nigeria Defence Academy.

Photo. Professors Ibrahim Gambari and John Ifediora.

Abuja, Nigeria.

The conference on “The State of Higher Education in Nigeria” held on March 12, 2020 in Abuja provided a forum for a serious national discussion on how well domestic institutions of higher learning in the country are preparing students and graduates for a 21st century economy with its attendant global implications. As Nigeria’s educational sector grapples with a rapidly growing population of university bound students, the questions that haunt university administrators remain the same as they have been over three decades ago….how to expand capacity without compromising quality, and how to provide access to all prospective students with proper credentials.
The keynote speakers and panelists at the conference all agree that a nation-state’s capacity to develop and sustain its development trajectory depend on a well-educated citizenry with a workforce sufficiently equipped with relevant and in-demand skills. But the acquisition of skills is highly dependent on a country’s willingness to devote significant resources in educating its students and creating infrastructures conducive to human-capital development. Since the early 1980s, Nigeria’s public institutions of higher learning have grown exponentially in number but such growth is far below what is needed to accommodate a steadily rising demand, thus making it necessary for Nigerians to seek university education in droves outside the country. The equally impressive growth rate of private universities in the country has not slowed the exodus of Nigerian students to foreign universities.

Both academic experts, students, policy-makers, professors and administrators at the conference stressed the need for a holistic assessment of Nigeria’s education sector in terms of access, and effectiveness of constituent institutions in delivering transformative and responsive education to students. Speakers at the conference pointed to the need for Nigeria to attract foreign investment in the education sector in the form of partnerships with established foreign universities with advanced educational technologies, and resources that would enhance capacity for domestic universities. This topical conference comes at a point where Nigeria is at cross-roads and must decide if she wants to be a leader in the 21st century by investing prudently in human capital development as is the case in many countries in Africa such as Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, and Morocco that have consistently made higher education a priority, and have seen the benefits in the form of robust economies, and attendant socio-political benefits. At the conclusion of the conference, Nigerians in the audience applauded Dakota Wesleyan University for hosting the conference, and had a standing ovation for Dr. Novak’s welcome address delivered live electronically from Mitchell, South Dakota.

Notable speakers at the conference include Professor Ibrahim Gambari, Pro-Chancellor of Bayero University, Dr. Amy Novak, President of Dakota Wesleyan University, Professor Ochefu, Secretary-General, Association of Nigerian Vice-Chancellors, Dr. EKpedeme Udom, Former Nigeria Minister of Prisons, Professor Jennifer Lofkrantz, American University, Nigeria, Professor John O. Ifediora, Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Wisconsin System, and many more distinguished speakers. Invited panelists include Dr. Kalu I Kalu, Former Minister of Finance, and Professor Obaji, Former Minister of Education.

by CASADE

Kenya Shows The Rest of Africa How to Run A Clean Government

Nairobi- A Kenyan governor accused of corruption was ordered to step down during his trial, a minister and his deputy were arraigned in court for alleged abuse of office. Kenyans are not used to such things.

The landmark ruling by a Kenyan judge that Kiambu County Governor Ferdinand Waititu must step aside during his trial is widely seen by governance experts as a victory in the fight against corruption in Kenya. The ruling could set the stage for other corruption cases in a country where powerful politicians and government officials accused of graft generally continue to occupy office.
"It's a precedent in the Kenyan legal system because for the first time, the court spelled out the actions to be taken against a senior official who is facing criminal charges in court," Peter Wendo, a political analyst and project adviser with the Rule of Law Program for sub-Saharan Africa at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Nairobi, told DW.

In the past, such people were taken to court but then "the matter just ends without any convictions," Wendo said. That's because the suspects still had access to their offices which meant they could easily influence the witnesses and interfere with the investigations. According to the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission, Waititu is being accused of irregularly awarding tenders worth 588 million Kshs (5 million euros, $5.6 million ), to companies associated with the governor or members of his immediate family. He has denied any wrongdoing and argues that he can account for every cent.

Corruption has not spared some Kenyan school playgrounds which were sold in shady deals.
Waititu's case is taking place after the East African nation made headlines when police arrested and charged the country's Finance Minister, Henry Rotich and his deputy Kamau Thugge. The two high-profile government officials are accused of conspiring to defraud the public, financial misconduct and failing to adhere to guidelines in procurement procedures relating to the construction of two multi-million dams.

Kenyatta's critics and supporters face off
In 2015, President Uhuru Kenyatta declared corruption a ‘national security threat' and vowed to tackle the vice head on. On several occasions he declared that no one who engages in corrupt practices would be spared. Kenyatta has constantly faced widespread criticism that his administration is one of the most corrupt in the country's history. He is eager to leave behind a legacy that shows he fought corruption to the best of his ability. "The two cases [Rotich's and Waititu's] are an indication that there is light at the end of the tunnel," analyst Peter Wendo said.

Kenya's Finance Minister Henry Rotich is an ally of Deputy President William Ruto
But for Kenyatta's critics, the war against corruption is all about the 2022 succession battle. They view the president as going after politicians aligned with his deputy William Ruto. "We have so many other cases that we have been told of by the Director of Public Prosecutions," Mutahi Ngunyi, a political analyst, told DW.
One-sided fight?

One example is what has come to be known as the 'Ruaraka land saga'. In that particular case, a piece of land was allegedly bought illegally by the government. "Even though a court ruled that the piece of land was bought illegally, the people involved are nowhere near the radar in this particular war against corruption," Ngunyi said.
Ngunyi believes that Kenyatta's critics are therefore right. "If you seem to be targeting one group of people, and you are letting another group of people go scot free, then there is a contradiction in the methodology of this war against graft."

Despite the recent court cases against prominent Kenyan officials, many citizens remain skeptical about President Uhuru Kenyatta's war on corruption. Transparency International ranks Kenya 144 out of 180 nations in its Corruption Perception Index. To improve on that ranking, Kenyatta will definitely need to put in more effort. As political analyst Peter Wendo puts it: "Only successful convictions will convince Kenyans that the fight against corruption has gathered pace and has taken a turn for the better."

*Courtesy of DW Press.
** Photo of Ferdinand Waititu

by CASADE